Cherries’ potential Europa League opponents

All summer long Bournemouth supporters have been looking forward to finding out exactly the details of their maiden European tour, and it will all feel more real after Friday, August 28th - the date of the Europa League draw for the league phase of the tournament.

Whilst 17 teams - including Cherries - are already confirmed to compete, the fates of 23 other sides are still undecided.

Cherries On Top has taken a look at qualifying ties, coefficients, and projections to give a rough idea of Bournemouth’s potential Europa League opponents.

36 teams take part in the league phase, with 12 clubs qualifying directly with another 24 earning the right to play in the Europa League proper via the qualifying section.

At the start of qualifying, not every Europa League side is known. That is because qualifying for all three European tournaments are linked. Sides knocked out early in the Champions League drop down to either the Europa League or Conference League.

As such, it is harder to project which clubs will end up in each pot. All 36 teams will be split into four pots based on coefficients. This used to inform the group stage draw, where each pool would have a team from each pot. Now, each side in the tournament will play two teams from each pot, no matter which pot they were seeded in.

There are a couple of caveats - a side cannot face more than two clubs from the same country, nor can they face a club from their own nation during the league phase. The eight games will be split evenly into four home fixtures and four away trips.

So far, four teams are confirmed to be in pot one as they each have one of the top nine coefficients in the tournament: AZ Alkmaar, Juventus, Bayer Leverkusen, Olympiacos, and Milan.

There is no further seeding once sides are split into pots - meaning it is fair game for all sides to be drawn against each other, aside from the aforementioned stipulations.

UEFA coefficients are calculated with a five-year rolling average. Of course, Cherries have never played in Europe before - so how can they have a coefficient?

AFC Bournemouth will benefit from the 20% floor rule. In order to reflect the strength of top national leagues, a club’s UEFA coefficient cannot drop below 20% of their country’s coefficient.

That means Cherries’ coefficient is set at 23.903. Fellow newcomers Sunderland will also be set at this coefficient, but the fact that Cherries finished higher in the Premier League last campaign will rank them above the Black Cats.

This could be the difference between Cherries being placed in pot two or pot three. Europa League Conference winners Crystal Palace will also enter the competition with a coefficient of 23.903 - their debut season in Europe yielded a coefficient of 21.875. Based on the first tie-break used by UEFA when clubs have the same coefficient, Palace would be ranked above Cherries.

There are not enough teams with coefficients larger than Cherries in order to drop them into pot four, but it is currently undecided whether Bournemouth will be seeded in pot two or pot three.

At the time of writing, qualifying for both the Champions League and Europa League is ongoing, with one leg played in the third qualifying round of the latter. These projections were made with first leg results in mind, but where ties were still in the balance, the club with the higher coefficient was projected to go through.

Based on what could likely be termed the worst-case scenario where the strongest sides win their games, Cherries are projected to be in pot three, just below pot two.

Cherries’ fellow English clubs would also fall into the third pot. This restricts their potential pot three opponents to two from Celje of Slovenia, LASK of Austria, Spanish outfit Celta Vigo, German side Hoffenheim, Turkish giants Besiktas and Portuguese cup winners Torreense.

Pot one is predictably dominated by the biggest names. 2024 Europa League finalists Bayer Leverkusen would be the highest-ranked side in the competition, with Benfica second - if they manage to navigate qualification against Danish outfit AGF.

Italian duo Juventus and Milan are the most eye-catching names in pot one, although Lyon, Rangers, and Real Sociedad are nothing to be sniffed at. Following defeat to NEC in the third round of Champions League qualification, Greek giants Olympiakos are now confirmed Europa League participants.

AZ Alkmaar are confirmed to be in pot one thanks to their direct qualification for the league phase and high co-efficient.

If results go their way, Cherries could float up to pot two. However, we’re currently projecting French duo Marseille and Stade Rennais - both confirmed for the league phase - to share pot two with two Austrian, two Czech, and two Belgian sides. RB Salzburg and Sturm Graz represent the Alpine nation, whilst Belgium’s hopes are based on Union Saint-Gilloise - who dropped out of the Champions League - and Anderlecht using home advantage to build on their 1-0 lead over PAOK in the Europa League qualifying. Viktoria Plzen and Sparta Prague would represent Czechia if our projections prove correct.

Pot four features more variety in terms of countries, with only Norway projected to have multiple teams in Viking and Lillestrom. There could be a trip to Bulgaria on the cards for Cherries in the form of Levski Sofia, whilst the signing of Mo Salah and Darwin Nunez boosts Trabzonspor’s prospects of winning their Europa League play-off.

NEC of the Netherlands, OFI of Greece, Sint-Truiden of Belgium, Sabah of Azerbaijan, and Universitatea Craiova of Romania round out our projections for pot four.

Outside of the restrictions of two teams per pot, there are further rules that prevent certain draws. For example, Bournemouth can only face two clubs per country - meaning if they were to draw Lyon from pot one and Rennes in pot two, they then couldn’t be drawn against Marseille as well.

This also applies to Belgium - Anderlecht, Union Saint-Gilloise (both pot two), Sint-Truiden (pot four), and Austria - Red Bull Salzburg, Sturm Graz (both pot two), LASK (pot three).

Two from pot one: Bayer Leverkusen (GER), Benfica (POR), Juventus (ITA), Milan (ITA), Lyon (FRA), Olympiacos (GRE), AZ Alkmaar (NED), Rangers (SCO), Real Sociedad (SPA).

Two from pot two: Marseille (FRA), Viktoria Plzen (CZE), Union Saint-Gillosie (BEL), Red Bull Salzburg (AUS), Sparta Prague (CZE), Stade Rennais (FRA), Anderlecht (BEL), Sturm Graz (AUS), Lech Poznan (POL).

Two from pot three: Celje (SVN), LASK (AUS), Celta Vigo (SPA), Hoffenheim (GER), Besiktas (TUR), Torreense (POR).

Two from pot four: NEC (NED), Sint-Truiden (BEL), Trabzonspor (TUR), Universitatea Craiova (ROM), OFI (GRE), Sabah (AZB), Viking (NOR), Lillestrom (NOR), Levski Sofia (BUL).

Max. two from France: Lyon (pot one), Marseille (pot two), Stade Rennais (pot two).

Max. two from Austria: Sturm Graz (pot two), Red Bull Salzburg (pot two), LASK (pot three).

Max. two from Belgium: Union Saint-Gilloise (pot two), Anderlecht (pot two), Sint-Truiden (pot four).

These projections were last updated on Tuesday August 11th.